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Losing streak calculator

Even with a good win rate, losing streaks happen when you trade enough. Assuming your win rate holds, see how likely a streak of a given length is.

New to this?

You getThe chance of that streak (or longer) happening at least once, and the typical longest streak

↓ See how it is worked out
What to enter, and the terms used

You enterA win rate (your assumption), the number of trades, and the losing streak to check

New to these words?

%
trades
in a row
Your entries stay on this device only and will be here next time. You can use . or , for decimals. If a number has separators, we show how it was read below the field.

Example: enter this, get this

  1. Win rate: 50% (an assumption)
  2. Number of trades: 100
  3. Losing streak to check: 5 in a row

With a 50% win rate over 100 trades, the chance of 5 or more losses in a row at least once is about 81.0%. The longest streak you reach with a 50% chance is 6 in a row. Over many trades, a 5-trade losing streak is quite likely. This assumes each trade is independent; it is not a prediction.

The example numbers only show how the calculation works. They are not recommendations. Replace them with your own account’s numbers, or use “Clear inputs”.

Where do I find these numbers?

Win rate
The win rate from your own records. You can count it from the P&L in the Account History tab of the MT4 Terminal, or the History tab of the MT5 Toolbox, or use the trading stats calculator
Number of trades
Roughly how many trades you take in the period you want to look at, such as a month or a year

The mobile app and platforms other than MT4/MT5 may use different names or places (for example, “Units” or “Lot size” for contract size). If you cannot find a number, check your broker’s help pages.

How it works

  1. It assumes each trade is independent and your win rate stays the same (in real markets it does not stay fixed).
  2. The chance of N+ losses in a row at least once is calculated exactly, by tracking the current streak trade by trade (dynamic programming).
  3. The typical longest streak is the length that your longest streak reaches or exceeds with a 50% chance.

FAQ

What win rate should I enter?

Use an assumption, such as the win rate from your own records. This tool does not predict win rates.

Does a long streak mean my strategy is bad?

Not by itself. With the same win rate, long streaks show up naturally over many trades. It helps to check whether you kept your rules, too.

Set your losing-streak limit in advance.

On Tiltnote’s paid plan, the EA alerts you on your MT4/MT5 screen when you get close to or reach the daily losing-streak limit you set, and on your phone too if MT4/MT5 push notifications are set up. Manual logging is free.

Try Tiltnote free →On the free plan, analysis and history show your most recent 14 days (older records are kept and unlock on the paid plan).

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Numbers you entered in a tool are not sent. Please do not include account numbers or passwords. Privacy details

This tool is a calculation aid. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to make any trade. Real values depend on your broker’s contract size, rates, commissions and spread. Always check in your trading platform before placing an order. The numbers you enter are calculated on your device and never sent anywhere.

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · Run by Kenji Okumura, Representative, Tiltnote · About this site