Home › Free tools › Break-even win rate calculator
Free tool
Break-even win rate calculator
Once your reward-to-risk ratio is set, so is the win rate you need to break even. Fees and spread are not included.
New to this?
You getThe win rate you need to break even, and the expectancy per trade (R) at the win rate you enter
What to enter, and the terms used
You enterYour reward-to-risk ratio (reward ÷ risk), and optionally your win rate
New to these words?
Example: enter this, get this
- 30-pip target and 20-pip stop → ratio: 30 ÷ 20 = 1.5
- Your win rate: 50% (an example)
The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + 1.5) = 40.0%. Above 40%, expectancy is positive by this math. At a 50% win rate it is 0.5 × 1.5 − 0.5 = +0.25R (taking one loss as 1, you gain 0.25 of that per trade on average). Fees and spread push the real break-even win rate a little higher.
The example numbers only show how the calculation works. They are not recommendations. Replace them with your own account’s numbers, or use “Clear inputs”.Where do I find these numbers?
- Reward-to-risk ratio
- From the gap between your entry price and the S/L (stop loss) and T/P (take profit) prices in the order window. The stop loss and take profit calculator shows it too
- Win rate
- The win rate from your own records. You can count it from the P&L in the Account History tab of the MT4 Terminal, or the History tab of the MT5 Toolbox
The mobile app and platforms other than MT4/MT5 may use different names or places (for example, “Units” or “Lot size” for contract size). If you cannot find a number, check your broker’s help pages.
How it works
- Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk ratio)
- Expectancy (R) = win rate × ratio − (1 − win rate). 1R is the size of one loss.
- Fees, spread and slippage are not included, so your real break-even win rate is a little higher.
FAQ
Does this tool tell me which ratio to use?
No. It does not choose one. Ratio and win rate work together, so check them against your own records.
Does a positive expectancy mean I will profit?
No. Your win rate and ratio may not hold in the future.
Do you know your own win rate and ratio?
Tiltnote adds up your win rate and P&L as you log trades, and shows the difference between trades where you kept your rules and trades where you didn’t.
Try Tiltnote free →On the free plan, analysis and history show your most recent 14 days (older records are kept and unlock on the paid plan).Related articles
How to review a month of tradingWhat is the spread? Bid, ask, and when it widensLoss aversion in tradingRisk-reward ratio and break-even win rate
More free tools
Position size calculatorDrawdown recovery calculatorPip value calculatorLosing streak calculatorDaily loss limit calculatorMargin calculatorForex market hoursMT4/MT5 server time converterSwap calculatorProfit and loss calculatorStop loss and take profit calculatorPivot point calculatorFibonacci calculatorProp firm drawdown calculatorDaily trading trackerTrading stats calculatorProp firm consistency rule calculatorMargin level & stop-out calculatorProp firm drawdown: static vs trailing vs end-of-dayGold (XAU/USD) lot size calculatorAverage entry price calculatorTrading journal template (with an emotions column)Win rate confidence interval calculatorCurrency exposure calculatorConvert your MT4/MT5 trade history to a Tiltnote CSV
Feedback on this page
Anything missing, unclear, or a tool you would like? Tell us in any language.
This tool is a calculation aid. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to make any trade. Real values depend on your broker’s contract size, rates, commissions and spread. Always check in your trading platform before placing an order. The numbers you enter are calculated on your device and never sent anywhere.
Updated 21 Oct 2026 · Run by Kenji Okumura, Representative, Tiltnote · About this site